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October 10, 2008

Study: Obama Outperforming Kerry among Whites in Southern Battlegrounds

@ 2:45 pm by Hill Staff

Barack Obama is faring far better among white voters in southern battleground states than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) did in 2004, according to a Public Policy Polling (PPP) report released Friday.

Obama trails John McCain by an average of 13 percentage points among whites in the battleground states of North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida by an average of 13 percentage point, but the Illinois Democrat has made double-digit gains among whites in those states compared to Kerry's 2004 election-day showing, according to PPP's numbers.

In Virginia, a state that went red in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Obama has made a 16 point gain among white voters. Compared with President Bush’s 23 percent advantage among whites in 2004, McCain has only a 7 percent predicted lead among white voters, according to PPP's study.

Similarly, McCain has a 13.5 percent lead with white voters in North Carolina, roughly half the lead President Bush had in the 2004 presidential election, and Obama has made a 5 percent gain among black voters as well.

Obama has gained three percentage points among white voters in Florida over Kerry's 2004 showing.

Despite his overall disadvantage among whites, Obama leads McCain in those states among white voters who rank the economy as the top issue this election–49 percent to 46 percent in Virginia, and 48 to 46 in North Carolina and Florida, according to PPP–as economic issues continue to favor the Democrat with election day less than a month away.

Recent polls show Obama leading McCain by slim margins in North Carolina and Florida, while an average of surveys taken this month show the Democrat ahead by eight percentage points in Virginia. All three states voted for Bush in the previous two presidential elections.

-Meghan McNamara

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